nojoke
04-15 04:02 PM
Are people seriously arguing that a child will not be happier in a bigger home, everything else remaining constant? Seriously, is someone actually arguing this?
And money can't buy happiness? Really? Are you saying everything else remaining constant if I gave you money it would make you sad? Seriously? Who is this person who would be sadder if I gave him money? I would like to meet him.
You people need to stop reminiscing about your childhood days and how happy your childhood was even though you had no money. I have a feeling that your child doesn't really care. Sure, give your child lots of love, but for Christ's sake, if you can afford it, don't make him / her spend his / her childhood in a small cramped apartment just because you had to.
You are confused. Money alone cannot buy happiness. People with less money are all not sad. There is a difference between what people are saying in this forum and what you are implying that they said.
Your child will be happy in rented house too. There are advantages with renting. There are various factors other than space alone. This does not imply that your child will be sad in a bigger house. As I said you are getting too confused.
And money can't buy happiness? Really? Are you saying everything else remaining constant if I gave you money it would make you sad? Seriously? Who is this person who would be sadder if I gave him money? I would like to meet him.
You people need to stop reminiscing about your childhood days and how happy your childhood was even though you had no money. I have a feeling that your child doesn't really care. Sure, give your child lots of love, but for Christ's sake, if you can afford it, don't make him / her spend his / her childhood in a small cramped apartment just because you had to.
You are confused. Money alone cannot buy happiness. People with less money are all not sad. There is a difference between what people are saying in this forum and what you are implying that they said.
Your child will be happy in rented house too. There are advantages with renting. There are various factors other than space alone. This does not imply that your child will be sad in a bigger house. As I said you are getting too confused.
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sroyc
08-06 10:41 AM
I'm not a lawyer but I think it'll be hard to prove that A qualifies for EB2 given that he/she does not have a Masters or 5 years of experience in a related field.
Regarding the EB1 spillover - yes, it's a valid question but the fuzziness of the law gives them enough room to interpret it either way.
Okay lets take your example. A & B are graduates with a Bachelors degree (A is a Mechanical and B is Computer Science). A decides to pursue higher study in Mechanical field and B takes up a Software job. After a year they file for B' EB3 at his work, while A is still at school. A joins a software company (His Masters in Mechanical is worth nothing now). EB2 is filed for A just because he has a Masters, B is also eligible for EB2 by that time. Why can't B get a earlier PD? Atleast B got relevant industry experience. How come A is superior than B?
Also why should EB2's get the spillover visas from EB1? Do they have a Ph.D? Why can't they allocate spillover visas from EB1 equally between EB2 and EB3?
Regarding the EB1 spillover - yes, it's a valid question but the fuzziness of the law gives them enough room to interpret it either way.
Okay lets take your example. A & B are graduates with a Bachelors degree (A is a Mechanical and B is Computer Science). A decides to pursue higher study in Mechanical field and B takes up a Software job. After a year they file for B' EB3 at his work, while A is still at school. A joins a software company (His Masters in Mechanical is worth nothing now). EB2 is filed for A just because he has a Masters, B is also eligible for EB2 by that time. Why can't B get a earlier PD? Atleast B got relevant industry experience. How come A is superior than B?
Also why should EB2's get the spillover visas from EB1? Do they have a Ph.D? Why can't they allocate spillover visas from EB1 equally between EB2 and EB3?
senthil1
12-20 04:22 PM
Everybody are blaming Bush for his failure in Iraq and Economy. But Bush had a big acheivement in his period. After 9/11 he successfully prevented Terrorist attacks. That was most important acheivement and that was overshadowed by other failures.
Yes, everybody, all senators, wanted to teach these terrorists a lesson after 9/11.
Afghan war is good and Iraq war is bad. Why, because Iraqis didn't leave WMDs a.k.a nukes behind.
(A weapon of mass destruction (WMD) is a weapon that can kill large numbers of humans and/or cause great damage to man-made structures (e.g. buildings), natural structures (e.g. mountains), or the biosphere in general. The term is often used to cover several weapon types, including nuclear, biological, chemical (NBC), and radiological weapons)
Now, Iraq war went bad, economy went bad (due to main street scamming the banks) and suddenly its all the fault of Mr. Bush.
Yes, everybody, all senators, wanted to teach these terrorists a lesson after 9/11.
Afghan war is good and Iraq war is bad. Why, because Iraqis didn't leave WMDs a.k.a nukes behind.
(A weapon of mass destruction (WMD) is a weapon that can kill large numbers of humans and/or cause great damage to man-made structures (e.g. buildings), natural structures (e.g. mountains), or the biosphere in general. The term is often used to cover several weapon types, including nuclear, biological, chemical (NBC), and radiological weapons)
Now, Iraq war went bad, economy went bad (due to main street scamming the banks) and suddenly its all the fault of Mr. Bush.
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spicy_guy
07-29 04:20 PM
I am no supporter of either party. To be fair, the economy could have collapsed without him and most of us could have been back home by now.
Rightly said. He has had bigger problems to deal with than LEGAL immigration. Even if he wants to think about immigration, its going to be much / all about ILLigal immigrants.
Because thats what Americans want to fix first.
Rightly said. He has had bigger problems to deal with than LEGAL immigration. Even if he wants to think about immigration, its going to be much / all about ILLigal immigrants.
Because thats what Americans want to fix first.
more...
mbawa2574
03-23 10:55 PM
it is not just america losing - the person who has bought the house would lose his downpayment / equity too -not to speak of the mighty credit score - am I right ??
depends on yr situation and your priorities and more important the place where you are planning to buy. is it in florida, mich, Ohio, california or nevada (I guess no - else you would not have asked this question). if you think of a house as investment and you dont want to take a loss - then wait. if you need the space desperately and you are o.k with the prospect of yr house depreciating for couple of years - then go ahead and buy. BTW there was another thread where this was discussed in detail
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17986
I agree he will loose his down payment or credit score in case of things going south on GC side but still he will be able to do whatever is best for his long term goals now and he will be better off in terms of equity when real estate market bounces back in 3-4 years.There are lucrative deals in the market and renting does not make any sense. There is always a risk factor and u can cover your risks accordingly. Anywaz What exactly ur going to do with Credit Score after u are kicked out from here ? So why not take risk now and play the game.
depends on yr situation and your priorities and more important the place where you are planning to buy. is it in florida, mich, Ohio, california or nevada (I guess no - else you would not have asked this question). if you think of a house as investment and you dont want to take a loss - then wait. if you need the space desperately and you are o.k with the prospect of yr house depreciating for couple of years - then go ahead and buy. BTW there was another thread where this was discussed in detail
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17986
I agree he will loose his down payment or credit score in case of things going south on GC side but still he will be able to do whatever is best for his long term goals now and he will be better off in terms of equity when real estate market bounces back in 3-4 years.There are lucrative deals in the market and renting does not make any sense. There is always a risk factor and u can cover your risks accordingly. Anywaz What exactly ur going to do with Credit Score after u are kicked out from here ? So why not take risk now and play the game.
485Mbe4001
09-29 12:27 PM
I understand your point of view, I used to work in solar energy. When i completed my post graduation most of the jobs required a USC (this was 10 yrs ago). I had to switch to software related jobs.
For me the number one priority is how Obama will handle the Skilled immigration issues. will he guided by Sen Dick Durbin, who at the moment seems to be his policy wonk. That will be a disaster for us. They have no intension of supporting skilled immigrants. We will will have to make some serious decisions if he is elected.
How many of us want to continue to stay in limbo...i dont.
For all the outpouring of love for obama, i have yet to see a single concrete proposal. Take the renewal energy policy for example, i think he wants to spend $150 billion on renewal energy. How will he fund this? Who will pay for this. is it you and me with higher taxes..i am already taxed up to the wazoo. In an effort to win the election he is pandering to one and all. Can someone reduce my fears that he will help EB..i dont think so. He said in the debate that he will stop outsourcing, please tell me if that is possible and how will he do it?
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.''
-- Spanish philosopher/poet/novelist George Santayana, 1906
My primary reason for supporting Obama is environment...
Obama truely supports renewable energy, and did not cave to placating the public with lowering gas tax. While I think that $15,000,000,000 per year may not be enough it is a start in the right direction.
My political slogan:
"Blow baby blow"
"Shine baby shine"
- Renewable energy is the future, it is made in the USA!
Many of us high skilled immigrants have the above average get-up-and-go that it takes to move this country forward to a brighter future. After all we had the get-up-and-go to move here.
However, the system does work against us. Being an "temporary" sure did not make it any easier making the investment that I have.
For me the number one priority is how Obama will handle the Skilled immigration issues. will he guided by Sen Dick Durbin, who at the moment seems to be his policy wonk. That will be a disaster for us. They have no intension of supporting skilled immigrants. We will will have to make some serious decisions if he is elected.
How many of us want to continue to stay in limbo...i dont.
For all the outpouring of love for obama, i have yet to see a single concrete proposal. Take the renewal energy policy for example, i think he wants to spend $150 billion on renewal energy. How will he fund this? Who will pay for this. is it you and me with higher taxes..i am already taxed up to the wazoo. In an effort to win the election he is pandering to one and all. Can someone reduce my fears that he will help EB..i dont think so. He said in the debate that he will stop outsourcing, please tell me if that is possible and how will he do it?
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.''
-- Spanish philosopher/poet/novelist George Santayana, 1906
My primary reason for supporting Obama is environment...
Obama truely supports renewable energy, and did not cave to placating the public with lowering gas tax. While I think that $15,000,000,000 per year may not be enough it is a start in the right direction.
My political slogan:
"Blow baby blow"
"Shine baby shine"
- Renewable energy is the future, it is made in the USA!
Many of us high skilled immigrants have the above average get-up-and-go that it takes to move this country forward to a brighter future. After all we had the get-up-and-go to move here.
However, the system does work against us. Being an "temporary" sure did not make it any easier making the investment that I have.
more...
s_r_e_e
07-14 04:29 PM
What would happen this time before it retrogress again is, some low hanging EB2s from 2005 end & 2006 will get GC while many 2002 & 2003 EB2 are still waiting. More frustration and even more stress with tracking , soft LUDs, Hard LUDs, info pass , uscis calls!! what a mess!
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Macaca
08-01 08:15 PM
Lobbying Reform, at Last (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/30/AR2007073001552.html) Congress should finish it before going home, July 31, 2007
IT WASN'T EASY, it took too long, and it's not done yet -- but before Congress leaves for its August recess, it should have completed a lobbying reform bill that would, for the first time, require disclosure of the bundles of campaign checks that lobbyists bring in for politicians. We say "should have" because the measure -- having not gone through the normal conference committee process -- needs to clear significant hurdles in both the House and Senate. Lawmakers of both parties, in both houses, must ensure that that happens before going home to face constituents who appear increasingly unhappy about a Congress they perceive as looking after its own interests, not theirs.
The lobbying package makes important changes, some of which were written into House rules in January. It would prohibit lawmakers and staff members from accepting gifts or travel from lobbyists and their clients. It would end lawmakers' ability to fly on corporate aircraft at cut-rate prices; senators and White House candidates would have to pay regular charter rates for such flights, while House members would simply be barred from accepting travel on private jets. It would lengthen, from one year to two, the revolving-door prohibition on senators and Senate staff members; the House limit would remain at one year.
It would require that senators pushing pet projects known as earmarks make that information available at least 48 hours in advance of a vote and certify that they and their immediate family members have no financial stake in the items; earmarks added in conference could be challenged and would have to receive 60 votes to survive. Lobbyists would also have to report gifts made to presidential libraries, now a financial disclosure black hole.
Most important, the measure would require lawmakers to include on their campaign finance reports the identities of lobbyists who raise $15,000 or more for them during a six-month period -- shining a needed light on an important source of influence. Keeping this requirement part of the bill was a difficult, and important, achievement.
This agreement will be brought up on the House floor today, under rules allowing it to pass quickly with two-thirds support. Then it goes to the Senate, where it is expected to run into opposition from Republican Sens. Jim DeMint (S.C.) and Tom Coburn (Okla.) over whether the earmarking rules are strict enough; because it involves a change in Senate rules, 67 votes will be needed for passage. Leadership from Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) will be critical to ensure that the complaints of a few senators are not allowed to derail a change that is badly needed and long overdue.
IT WASN'T EASY, it took too long, and it's not done yet -- but before Congress leaves for its August recess, it should have completed a lobbying reform bill that would, for the first time, require disclosure of the bundles of campaign checks that lobbyists bring in for politicians. We say "should have" because the measure -- having not gone through the normal conference committee process -- needs to clear significant hurdles in both the House and Senate. Lawmakers of both parties, in both houses, must ensure that that happens before going home to face constituents who appear increasingly unhappy about a Congress they perceive as looking after its own interests, not theirs.
The lobbying package makes important changes, some of which were written into House rules in January. It would prohibit lawmakers and staff members from accepting gifts or travel from lobbyists and their clients. It would end lawmakers' ability to fly on corporate aircraft at cut-rate prices; senators and White House candidates would have to pay regular charter rates for such flights, while House members would simply be barred from accepting travel on private jets. It would lengthen, from one year to two, the revolving-door prohibition on senators and Senate staff members; the House limit would remain at one year.
It would require that senators pushing pet projects known as earmarks make that information available at least 48 hours in advance of a vote and certify that they and their immediate family members have no financial stake in the items; earmarks added in conference could be challenged and would have to receive 60 votes to survive. Lobbyists would also have to report gifts made to presidential libraries, now a financial disclosure black hole.
Most important, the measure would require lawmakers to include on their campaign finance reports the identities of lobbyists who raise $15,000 or more for them during a six-month period -- shining a needed light on an important source of influence. Keeping this requirement part of the bill was a difficult, and important, achievement.
This agreement will be brought up on the House floor today, under rules allowing it to pass quickly with two-thirds support. Then it goes to the Senate, where it is expected to run into opposition from Republican Sens. Jim DeMint (S.C.) and Tom Coburn (Okla.) over whether the earmarking rules are strict enough; because it involves a change in Senate rules, 67 votes will be needed for passage. Leadership from Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) will be critical to ensure that the complaints of a few senators are not allowed to derail a change that is badly needed and long overdue.
more...
Dhundhun
08-06 10:23 PM
This is joke on myself on my H1B life:
Creater God was busy in creation; there was very long queue for every species- humans, animals, birds, insets, etc. I was in queue of animals. Being slightly smarter, I jumped the queue and joined the queue of humans. God by mistake made me human. Soon He realized me jumping the line and cursed me as punishment to work on H1 Visa like animals.
After sometimes He realized His mistake. It was His mistake to make me human, so He blessed – OK, one fine day, when you lived through your animal's life, you will get GC, afterwards you get back again human life.
Still waiting for that fine day.
Creater God was busy in creation; there was very long queue for every species- humans, animals, birds, insets, etc. I was in queue of animals. Being slightly smarter, I jumped the queue and joined the queue of humans. God by mistake made me human. Soon He realized me jumping the line and cursed me as punishment to work on H1 Visa like animals.
After sometimes He realized His mistake. It was His mistake to make me human, so He blessed – OK, one fine day, when you lived through your animal's life, you will get GC, afterwards you get back again human life.
Still waiting for that fine day.
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bharol
01-06 09:22 PM
Hamas has to be blamed for civilian deaths as well.
Current propaganda by them portrays Hamas as innocent and puts all blame on Israel. Hamas has a history of using civilians as human shields. They are cruel even to their own people.
see these to believe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0wJXf2nt4Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBYtij4Q7sE
Current propaganda by them portrays Hamas as innocent and puts all blame on Israel. Hamas has a history of using civilians as human shields. They are cruel even to their own people.
see these to believe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0wJXf2nt4Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBYtij4Q7sE
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SunnySurya
08-05 03:17 PM
Don't remember exactly, I can look into the wording of the law but I think
post bachelor 5 year experience for EB2 is a law and not Memo.
Wondering whether the post bachelor 5 year experience for EB2 was also a memo. If so when was that memo written - before or after the Yates 2000 memo?
post bachelor 5 year experience for EB2 is a law and not Memo.
Wondering whether the post bachelor 5 year experience for EB2 was also a memo. If so when was that memo written - before or after the Yates 2000 memo?
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pd_recapturing
08-05 10:55 AM
Rolling_Flood, great idea to benefit just U'r own GC cause. If you are positive about U'r logic why don't you go ahead and file a lawsuit. Looks like your true intention of creating this thread is to create a divide among IV members. Already members had a tough few weeks (in terms of unity) after the Aug bulletin. Now you are poking another rift.
The EB classification is for a future job. Since the person is qualified, he ports to EB2 midway so what. The GC is for a future job, and when the person gets his/her GC, he/she is qualified for that position at that time. So what is U'r logic??
If you want to truly fight the system them fight for a common basis for EB classification. There are cases where the same job title has been classified under all 3 categories. Example
Senior Programmer (say Bachelor's with 5 yrs exp)
Files under EB1 : because he/she came L1, qualification might be few yrs exp.
Files under EB2 : because he/she has 5 yrs of exp and the attorney was smart to classify it as EB2.
Files under EB3 : because of company policy or based on bad attorney advice (conservative approach).
The above example shows that if U'r company and attorney is smart U can get U'r GC faster.
If you are keen on doing a lawsuit why not
File one against USCIS for wasting thousands of visa's over the past few years, which is the source of this backlog.
Or file one against DOL for taking n number of years to get the LC done.
Or file one against 245 filers who clogged the USCIS system which is causing USCIS to be inefficient.
Man, you hit the nail on the head !!! Thats precise the point, I was trying to say in my last post (somewhere on page 1) ... The whole eb2/eb3 qualification, job requirements etc can be rigged easily by employer/lawyers ...There is no black and white in this game ..
The EB classification is for a future job. Since the person is qualified, he ports to EB2 midway so what. The GC is for a future job, and when the person gets his/her GC, he/she is qualified for that position at that time. So what is U'r logic??
If you want to truly fight the system them fight for a common basis for EB classification. There are cases where the same job title has been classified under all 3 categories. Example
Senior Programmer (say Bachelor's with 5 yrs exp)
Files under EB1 : because he/she came L1, qualification might be few yrs exp.
Files under EB2 : because he/she has 5 yrs of exp and the attorney was smart to classify it as EB2.
Files under EB3 : because of company policy or based on bad attorney advice (conservative approach).
The above example shows that if U'r company and attorney is smart U can get U'r GC faster.
If you are keen on doing a lawsuit why not
File one against USCIS for wasting thousands of visa's over the past few years, which is the source of this backlog.
Or file one against DOL for taking n number of years to get the LC done.
Or file one against 245 filers who clogged the USCIS system which is causing USCIS to be inefficient.
Man, you hit the nail on the head !!! Thats precise the point, I was trying to say in my last post (somewhere on page 1) ... The whole eb2/eb3 qualification, job requirements etc can be rigged easily by employer/lawyers ...There is no black and white in this game ..
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alisa
01-04 03:30 PM
It looks like you are spokesperson of President Zardari and Pak foreign minister Quressi !!! Be honest and don't speak politician's language. Don't you think ISI is not involved with LeT? ISI is not under control of Pak government?
The ISI created the LeT. But the governments always create monsters, and then the policy changes, and the desk is closed, and the project funding is finished, and the resources are diverted to something else. The genie is usually never put back in the bottle.
I think thats what is happening. These are monsters of the past.
The other possibility is that the ISI and the army is reactivating its old network and restarting the old (pre-2002) policy. Personally, I don't think that is the case. I haven't seen a rational explanation for why the Pakistani establishment would want to do that at this point.
The ISI created the LeT. But the governments always create monsters, and then the policy changes, and the desk is closed, and the project funding is finished, and the resources are diverted to something else. The genie is usually never put back in the bottle.
I think thats what is happening. These are monsters of the past.
The other possibility is that the ISI and the army is reactivating its old network and restarting the old (pre-2002) policy. Personally, I don't think that is the case. I haven't seen a rational explanation for why the Pakistani establishment would want to do that at this point.
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unitednations
08-02 06:35 PM
Welcome back and Thanks very much for your valuable suggestions.
I have an important question for you and would request your suggestion:
Here's my situation: I am working for my current employer from last 6 years. My I-485 has been filed last week through my employer's attorney. My EB3 I-140 approved and I am on 9th year of h1-B. My H1-B expires in January next year. I have 3 other dependants on H4.
Now my current employer is trying to either fire me off or reduce my work hours to about 8 hrs / week.
What would be my best option to take decision?
1. Should I :
a. Stay home untill the expiry of 6 months and invoke AC21 after that? or
b. transfer my H1-B to some other employer and start working on H1-B and just wait for 6 months to invoke AC21?
2. Can my current employer reduce my hours legally? Meaning if they have to alter my H1-B to 8 hrs per week what will happen to my H1-B? Can i still able to transfer my H1-B to new emploer to work for 40Hrs/week if I want to?
The problem is- if they can't reduce my hours legally, I may be fired. And, if I get fired, they will revoke my H1-B on the same day but won't revoke my I-140 untill 6 months.
What do you suggest to help both me and my employer?
Thanks a lot for your valuabale suggestion and helping me out.
Once 485 is filed then you are authorized to stay in USA. If you want to work then you can use EAD; if you want to go in/out of USA then you need advance parole.
At the same time you can have h-1b.
Both things allow you to stay here.
Now; once 485 is filed; you do not need to comply with the terms and conditions of your non immigrant status. However; you shouldn't start working with another employer until you have EAD.
Technically; you could sit at home and do nothing; as long as you have intent to work with the employer until 485 is pending for more then six months and employer doesn't pull the plug before 180 days then you would be fine.
You could try to convert the h-1b to part time or transfer to another company.
I only know of one case where person was doing future base employment and invoked ac21 at his local office interview (law says you can do this) and stated he was going to work with someone else.
USCIS adjudicator asked for a letter from the company that they had intent to hire him up until the 485 had been pending for more then six months. Company would not give the letter and his case was denied.
I have an important question for you and would request your suggestion:
Here's my situation: I am working for my current employer from last 6 years. My I-485 has been filed last week through my employer's attorney. My EB3 I-140 approved and I am on 9th year of h1-B. My H1-B expires in January next year. I have 3 other dependants on H4.
Now my current employer is trying to either fire me off or reduce my work hours to about 8 hrs / week.
What would be my best option to take decision?
1. Should I :
a. Stay home untill the expiry of 6 months and invoke AC21 after that? or
b. transfer my H1-B to some other employer and start working on H1-B and just wait for 6 months to invoke AC21?
2. Can my current employer reduce my hours legally? Meaning if they have to alter my H1-B to 8 hrs per week what will happen to my H1-B? Can i still able to transfer my H1-B to new emploer to work for 40Hrs/week if I want to?
The problem is- if they can't reduce my hours legally, I may be fired. And, if I get fired, they will revoke my H1-B on the same day but won't revoke my I-140 untill 6 months.
What do you suggest to help both me and my employer?
Thanks a lot for your valuabale suggestion and helping me out.
Once 485 is filed then you are authorized to stay in USA. If you want to work then you can use EAD; if you want to go in/out of USA then you need advance parole.
At the same time you can have h-1b.
Both things allow you to stay here.
Now; once 485 is filed; you do not need to comply with the terms and conditions of your non immigrant status. However; you shouldn't start working with another employer until you have EAD.
Technically; you could sit at home and do nothing; as long as you have intent to work with the employer until 485 is pending for more then six months and employer doesn't pull the plug before 180 days then you would be fine.
You could try to convert the h-1b to part time or transfer to another company.
I only know of one case where person was doing future base employment and invoked ac21 at his local office interview (law says you can do this) and stated he was going to work with someone else.
USCIS adjudicator asked for a letter from the company that they had intent to hire him up until the 485 had been pending for more then six months. Company would not give the letter and his case was denied.
more...
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mariner5555
04-20 01:04 AM
since nothing much is happening - I thought that I would post this - seems like a worst case scenario -but who knows ..some of his predictions have already come true ..this was interview on mar 24.
---------
Q. Where are home prices going?
A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.
With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.
Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.
Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?
A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.
Q. But when will this happen?
A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.
Q. How bad will things get?
A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.
Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?
A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.
-----------------------------
---------
Q. Where are home prices going?
A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.
With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.
Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.
Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?
A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.
Q. But when will this happen?
A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.
Q. How bad will things get?
A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.
Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?
A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.
-----------------------------
dresses Justin Bieber tattoo
dartkid31
05-24 01:58 PM
That's censorship. Go ahead and good luck with your mentality. It seems you can't handle the truth and views that could give you better information to handle debates and put more intelligent requests ahead.
Go and learn something, learning01. Just stop reading the posts on this thread and stop posting here if you don't like. It is awful when people tries to take a censorship in open forums.
I've said this before: I usually dont like casting aspersions, but take a look at a lot of Communique's posts. Some look like they were copied and pasted word for word from the NumbersUsa or FAIR site. And now he's defending Lou Dobbs. Using terms like "mass migration" "unchecked immigration", etc. He claims to be an H1B, and he's trolling Lou Dobbs. I think most people on this site can see through the facade.
Go and learn something, learning01. Just stop reading the posts on this thread and stop posting here if you don't like. It is awful when people tries to take a censorship in open forums.
I've said this before: I usually dont like casting aspersions, but take a look at a lot of Communique's posts. Some look like they were copied and pasted word for word from the NumbersUsa or FAIR site. And now he's defending Lou Dobbs. Using terms like "mass migration" "unchecked immigration", etc. He claims to be an H1B, and he's trolling Lou Dobbs. I think most people on this site can see through the facade.
more...
makeup Justin Bieber shows off new
new_horizon
01-06 02:49 PM
Israel is fully justified in responding to the rocket attacks from Gaza. How long can they show restraint by not responding to the unprovoked attacks. Do you think US will remain silent, if Canada were to lob rockets into US. Asbolutely not. Every country has the right to protect itself.
Hamas is such a coward orgn that they hide behind school, mosque, hospitals to shoot their rockets, so they really are luring israel to bomb those areas. Unfortunately innocents die...the blame should be on hamas. In fact, before bombing Israel even goes to the extent of calling and texting people in the target area to warn them before bombing. which country at war you know does that. Inspite of all these the biased media portrays Israel as the evil one. time to think. if only india shows some courage like that.
Hamas is such a coward orgn that they hide behind school, mosque, hospitals to shoot their rockets, so they really are luring israel to bomb those areas. Unfortunately innocents die...the blame should be on hamas. In fact, before bombing Israel even goes to the extent of calling and texting people in the target area to warn them before bombing. which country at war you know does that. Inspite of all these the biased media portrays Israel as the evil one. time to think. if only india shows some courage like that.
girlfriend Q amp; A: Justin Bieber#39;s Jewish
Marphad
12-17 01:09 PM
This is exactly I hate. To divert focus of terrorism to Hindu group, Muslim leader comes out - WOW!
Sounds like LeT informed Hindu group in advance that they are going to attack so as a by-product they can kill Karkare. Ha ha ha.
Times Of India Headline: Antulay raises doubts over Karkare's killing
Sounds like LeT informed Hindu group in advance that they are going to attack so as a by-product they can kill Karkare. Ha ha ha.
Times Of India Headline: Antulay raises doubts over Karkare's killing
hairstyles Justin Bieber reveals Hebrew
amoljak
08-11 09:23 AM
I agree with yabadaba. We should also send feedback to CNN about the lies Lou Dobbs is perpetuating on national TV.
Go here http://www.cnn.com/feedback/forms/form4.html?7 to give feedback about Lou Dobbs.
This is what I wrote:
Hello,
In the Lou Dobbs Tonight, which aired on Aired August 10, 2006 - 18:00 ET, Lou had John Miano from the programmer's guild on his show. John Milano claimed that he did not get the information about H1B visas from the government. Lou did not question his claim nor did he make any efforts to validate his claims. The information he was looking for is available here: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CaseH1B.aspx
The programmer's guild knows about this source, as they have used it selectively at other times to further their agenda. So this part of the program was a clear lie.
The other guest (Michael Maxwell) asserted that H1B program is "being gamed by both terrorists and foreign agents". He did not present any evidence for that and neither did Lou Dobbs ask for any. I am in the US on an H1B visa, and these comments were totally offensive to me.
It is sad to see that CNN is letting unsubstantiated claims and lies to be perpetuated on a prime time "news" show. May be the show should be called "Lou Dobbs' Mudslinging Tonight"
Please try to use your own language, otherwise they will ignore the emails as form letters, but try to cover all the points. Later I think we should contact other News outlets and point out the incompetence
Go here http://www.cnn.com/feedback/forms/form4.html?7 to give feedback about Lou Dobbs.
This is what I wrote:
Hello,
In the Lou Dobbs Tonight, which aired on Aired August 10, 2006 - 18:00 ET, Lou had John Miano from the programmer's guild on his show. John Milano claimed that he did not get the information about H1B visas from the government. Lou did not question his claim nor did he make any efforts to validate his claims. The information he was looking for is available here: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CaseH1B.aspx
The programmer's guild knows about this source, as they have used it selectively at other times to further their agenda. So this part of the program was a clear lie.
The other guest (Michael Maxwell) asserted that H1B program is "being gamed by both terrorists and foreign agents". He did not present any evidence for that and neither did Lou Dobbs ask for any. I am in the US on an H1B visa, and these comments were totally offensive to me.
It is sad to see that CNN is letting unsubstantiated claims and lies to be perpetuated on a prime time "news" show. May be the show should be called "Lou Dobbs' Mudslinging Tonight"
Please try to use your own language, otherwise they will ignore the emails as form letters, but try to cover all the points. Later I think we should contact other News outlets and point out the incompetence
rtarar
08-06 09:33 AM
IITian or MITian its immaterial.
You posts earlier have proved themselves that you are a certified selfish,arrogant and a bonafied idiot.
Some body really took care to create a piece like you.
You posts earlier have proved themselves that you are a certified selfish,arrogant and a bonafied idiot.
Some body really took care to create a piece like you.
rsdang
08-29 10:58 AM
:D We've all been there, but don't like to admit it. We've all kicked
back in our cubicles and suddenly felt something brewing down below. As
much as we try to convince ourselves otherwise, the WORK POOP is
inevitable.
For those who hate pooping at work, following is the Survival Guide
for Taking a dump at work.
*CROP DUSTING* - When farting, you walk really fast around the
office so the smell is not in your area and everyone else gets a whiff, but no
one knows where it came from. Be careful when you do this. Do not stop
until the full fart has been expelled. Walk an extra 30 feet to make sure
the smell has left your pants.
*FLY BY* - The act of scouting out a bathroom before pooping. Walk
in and check for other poopers. If there are others in the bathroom,
leave and come back again. Be careful not to become a FREQUENT FLYER.
People may become suspicious if they catch you constantly going into the bathroom.
*ESCAPEE* - A fart that slips out while taking a pee or forcing a
poop in a stall. This is usually accompanied by a sudden wave of
embarrassment. If you release an escapee, do not acknowledge it.
Pretend it did not happen. If you are a man and are standing next to the farter in the urinal,
pretend you did not hear it. No one likes an escapee. It is uncomfortable for all involved.
Making a joke or laughing makes both parties feel uneasy.
*JAILBREAK*- When forcing a poop, several farts slip out at a machine
gun pace. This is usually a side effect of diarrhea or a hangover.
If this should happen, do not panic. Remain in the stall until everyone has
left the bathroom to spare everyone the awkwardness of what just occurred.
*COURTESY FLUSH* - The act of flushing the toilet the instant the
poop hits the water. This reduces the amount of air time the poop has to
stink up the bathroom. This can help you avoid being caught doing the
WALK OF SHAME.
*WALK OF SHAME* - Walking from the stall-to the sink-to the door
after you have just stunk up the bathroom. This can be a very uncomfortable
moment if someone walks in and busts you. As with farts, it is best to
pretend that the smell does not exist.--Can be avoided with the use of
the COURTESY FLUSH.
*OUT OF THE CLOSET POOPER* - A colleague who poops at work and is
Dog-gone proud of it. You will often see an Out-Of-The-Closet Pooper
enter the bathroom with a newspaper or magazine under their arm.
Always look around the office for the Out-Of- The-Closet Pooper before
entering the bathroom.
*THE POOPING FRIENDS NETWORK (P.F.N)* A group of co-workers who band
together to ensure emergency pooping goes off without incident. This
group can help you to monitor the whereabouts of Out-Of-The-Closet
Poopers and identify SAFE HAVENS.
*SAFE HAVENS* A seldom-used bathroom somewhere in t he building
where you can least expect visitors. Try floors that are predominantly of
the opposite sex. This will reduce the odds of a pooper of your sex
entering the bathroom.
*TURD BURGLAR* - Someone who does not realize that you are in the
stall and tries to force the door open. This is one of the most shocking
and vulnerable moments that can occur when taking a poop at work. If
this occurs, remain in the stall until the Turd Burglar leaves. This way
you will avoid all uncomfortable eye contact.
*CAMO-COUGH* A phony cough that alerts all new entrants into the
bathroom that you are in a stall. This can be used to cover-up a
WATERMELON, or to alert potential *Turd Burglars* - Very effective when used in conjunction with a
SHIRLEY TEMPLE .
*SHIRLEY TEMPLE* - A subtle toe-tapping that is used to alert
potential Turd Burglars that you are occupying a stall. This will remove all
doubt that the stall is occupied. If you hea r a SHIRLEY TEMPLE, leave the
bathroom immediately so the pooper can poop in peace.
*WATERMELON* - A poop that creates a loud splash when hitting the
toilet water. This is also an embarrassing incident. If you feel a
Watermelon coming on, create a diversion. See CAMO-COUGH.
*HAVANAOMELET* - A case of diarrhea that creates a series of loud
splashes in the toilet water--often accompanied by an Escapee. Try
using a CAMO-COUGH with a SHIRLEY TEMPLE.
*AUNT BETTY* - A bathroom user who seems to linger around
forever...Could spend extended lengths of time in front of the
mirror or sitting on the pot.
An AUNT BETTY makes it difficult to relax while on the crapper, as
you should always wait to poop when the bathroom is empty. This benefits
you as well as the other bathroom attendees
************************************************** ******************
SOME VARIETIES~
*The King Poop* - This kind is the kind of poop that killed Elvis.
It doesn't come until you're all sweaty, trembling and purple from
straining so hard.
*Bali Belly Poop* - You poop so much you lose 5 lbs.
*Cement Block* - You wish you'd gotten a spinal block before you
poop.
*Cork Poop* - (Also Known as Floater Poop) = Even after the third
flush, it's still floating in there. How do I get rid of it? This poop
usually happens at someone else's house.
*The Bungee Poop* - The kind of poop that just hangs off your rear
before it falls into the water.
*The Crippler* - The kind of poop where you have to sit on the
toilet so long your legs go numb from the waist down.
*The Chitty Chitty Bang Bang* - The kind of poop that hits you when
you're trapped in your car in a traffic jam.
*The Party Pooper* - The giant poop you take at a party and, when
you flush the toilet, you watch in horror as the water starts to rise.
back in our cubicles and suddenly felt something brewing down below. As
much as we try to convince ourselves otherwise, the WORK POOP is
inevitable.
For those who hate pooping at work, following is the Survival Guide
for Taking a dump at work.
*CROP DUSTING* - When farting, you walk really fast around the
office so the smell is not in your area and everyone else gets a whiff, but no
one knows where it came from. Be careful when you do this. Do not stop
until the full fart has been expelled. Walk an extra 30 feet to make sure
the smell has left your pants.
*FLY BY* - The act of scouting out a bathroom before pooping. Walk
in and check for other poopers. If there are others in the bathroom,
leave and come back again. Be careful not to become a FREQUENT FLYER.
People may become suspicious if they catch you constantly going into the bathroom.
*ESCAPEE* - A fart that slips out while taking a pee or forcing a
poop in a stall. This is usually accompanied by a sudden wave of
embarrassment. If you release an escapee, do not acknowledge it.
Pretend it did not happen. If you are a man and are standing next to the farter in the urinal,
pretend you did not hear it. No one likes an escapee. It is uncomfortable for all involved.
Making a joke or laughing makes both parties feel uneasy.
*JAILBREAK*- When forcing a poop, several farts slip out at a machine
gun pace. This is usually a side effect of diarrhea or a hangover.
If this should happen, do not panic. Remain in the stall until everyone has
left the bathroom to spare everyone the awkwardness of what just occurred.
*COURTESY FLUSH* - The act of flushing the toilet the instant the
poop hits the water. This reduces the amount of air time the poop has to
stink up the bathroom. This can help you avoid being caught doing the
WALK OF SHAME.
*WALK OF SHAME* - Walking from the stall-to the sink-to the door
after you have just stunk up the bathroom. This can be a very uncomfortable
moment if someone walks in and busts you. As with farts, it is best to
pretend that the smell does not exist.--Can be avoided with the use of
the COURTESY FLUSH.
*OUT OF THE CLOSET POOPER* - A colleague who poops at work and is
Dog-gone proud of it. You will often see an Out-Of-The-Closet Pooper
enter the bathroom with a newspaper or magazine under their arm.
Always look around the office for the Out-Of- The-Closet Pooper before
entering the bathroom.
*THE POOPING FRIENDS NETWORK (P.F.N)* A group of co-workers who band
together to ensure emergency pooping goes off without incident. This
group can help you to monitor the whereabouts of Out-Of-The-Closet
Poopers and identify SAFE HAVENS.
*SAFE HAVENS* A seldom-used bathroom somewhere in t he building
where you can least expect visitors. Try floors that are predominantly of
the opposite sex. This will reduce the odds of a pooper of your sex
entering the bathroom.
*TURD BURGLAR* - Someone who does not realize that you are in the
stall and tries to force the door open. This is one of the most shocking
and vulnerable moments that can occur when taking a poop at work. If
this occurs, remain in the stall until the Turd Burglar leaves. This way
you will avoid all uncomfortable eye contact.
*CAMO-COUGH* A phony cough that alerts all new entrants into the
bathroom that you are in a stall. This can be used to cover-up a
WATERMELON, or to alert potential *Turd Burglars* - Very effective when used in conjunction with a
SHIRLEY TEMPLE .
*SHIRLEY TEMPLE* - A subtle toe-tapping that is used to alert
potential Turd Burglars that you are occupying a stall. This will remove all
doubt that the stall is occupied. If you hea r a SHIRLEY TEMPLE, leave the
bathroom immediately so the pooper can poop in peace.
*WATERMELON* - A poop that creates a loud splash when hitting the
toilet water. This is also an embarrassing incident. If you feel a
Watermelon coming on, create a diversion. See CAMO-COUGH.
*HAVANAOMELET* - A case of diarrhea that creates a series of loud
splashes in the toilet water--often accompanied by an Escapee. Try
using a CAMO-COUGH with a SHIRLEY TEMPLE.
*AUNT BETTY* - A bathroom user who seems to linger around
forever...Could spend extended lengths of time in front of the
mirror or sitting on the pot.
An AUNT BETTY makes it difficult to relax while on the crapper, as
you should always wait to poop when the bathroom is empty. This benefits
you as well as the other bathroom attendees
************************************************** ******************
SOME VARIETIES~
*The King Poop* - This kind is the kind of poop that killed Elvis.
It doesn't come until you're all sweaty, trembling and purple from
straining so hard.
*Bali Belly Poop* - You poop so much you lose 5 lbs.
*Cement Block* - You wish you'd gotten a spinal block before you
poop.
*Cork Poop* - (Also Known as Floater Poop) = Even after the third
flush, it's still floating in there. How do I get rid of it? This poop
usually happens at someone else's house.
*The Bungee Poop* - The kind of poop that just hangs off your rear
before it falls into the water.
*The Crippler* - The kind of poop where you have to sit on the
toilet so long your legs go numb from the waist down.
*The Chitty Chitty Bang Bang* - The kind of poop that hits you when
you're trapped in your car in a traffic jam.
*The Party Pooper* - The giant poop you take at a party and, when
you flush the toilet, you watch in horror as the water starts to rise.
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